Most Important Economic Events of the Week 11.29.2021 – 12.05.2021

Due to a strong decline last Friday, the DXY dollar index closed last week, practically at the level of the previous week's close, near the mark of 96.00.

The weakening dollar and the decline in the DXY dollar index were fueled by concerns about the possible spread of a new Covid-19 strain found in South Africa. Reports of a new strain of coronavirus have caused massive sell-offs in global stock markets, especially in Europe, and the so-called Black Friday is indeed taking on a negative connotation this year. If there are signals over the weekend that Europe or other regions of the world may tighten coronavirus restrictions, sales could continue on Monday. Major US stock indexes seem to close this month in negative territory, and European indexes not only completely zeroed their October gains, but also returned to the levels of 5-6 months ago.

Concerns about a new Covid-19 strain have spilled over into commodity markets. So, on Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell 13%, or $ 10.34, to $ 68.05, the lowest closing level since September 9.

Demand for the protective franc and yen rose sharply on Friday. USD / JPY fell to mid-October levels, while USD / CHF fell to mid-November levels. The decline in the yen and franc crosses against commodity currencies was even stronger.

Next week will be a transitional week between November and December. Already at the beginning of next month, many major players in the financial market will begin to sum up the results of the outgoing year, also balancing their investment portfolios. Therefore, strong movements in the market are also possible. And since the beginning of the 3rd decade of the month, we, private investors and other financial market participants also can prepare to summarize the results of the year.

Next week, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics on Germany, China, Eurozone, USA, Canada, Australia, as well as 2 speeches by Jerome Powell, who was nominated last week by the US President for a second term as head of the FRS. Among the most important events of the coming week among macro data will be the publication on Friday of the monthly data from the US labor market, which is of key importance for the FRS (along with data on inflation and GDP) in making decisions on monetary policy.

Of the most significant macroeconomic data, the publication of which is expected next week, it is worth noting the following:

*) new events can be added to the calendar and/or some scheduled events canceled during the coming week

**) specified time – GMT

Monday, November 29

08:30 JPY Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Japan Kuroda

During his speech, the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda is likely to give some comments on the bank's monetary policy. "It is necessary to patiently continue easing monetary policy," Kuroda, the Head of the Bank of Japan, has been saying almost traditionally lately. Markets usually react noticeably to Kuroda's speeches if he touches on the topic of monetary policy and makes unexpected statements. Volatility at such moments usually grows not only in the yen quotes, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets. If he does not touch on monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

13:00 EUR Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in Germany (preliminary release)

This index is published by the EU Statistical Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical methodology agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it. Previous indicator values: +4.6% in October, +4.1% in September, +3.4% in August, +3.1% in July, +2.1% in June, +2.4% in May, +2.1% in April, +2.0% in March, +1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020 (in annual terms). If the data for November turn out to be better than the previous values, then the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data suggests increasing inflationary pressures in Germany. The data is worse than the previous value will negatively affect the euro. Forecast: + 5.4% in November.

19:00 CAD Speech by Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

The Canadian economy, as well as the entire global economy, slowed down in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier, Tiff Macklem said that the country's economy is quite stable. However, the situation has changed rapidly, and not for the better. It will be interesting now to listen to Macklem's opinion on the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the monetary policy of the central bank.

If Tiff Macklem touches on the topic of the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the volatility in the quotes of the Canadian dollar will rise sharply. His tough tone will help strengthen the Canadian dollar. The soft rhetoric of Macklem's speech and the propensity to pursue a soft monetary policy will negatively affect the CAD quotes.

He will probably also explain the recent Bank of Canada decision on the interest rate and may provide some guidance for investors ahead of the next meeting of the central bank.

20:05 USD Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

Powell's comments could have an impact on both short-term and long-term USD trading if he again touches on the topic of the Fed's monetary policy. A more “hawkish” stance on the Fed's monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthening the US dollar, while a more cautious position is seen as negative for the USD.

If he makes unexpected statements, then the volatility in trading in the financial markets may increase. According to Powell, the current policy of the Fed is sufficient and appropriate to the situation, but the central bank is ready to adjust it in the event of risks that may become an obstacle to achieving its goals.

Financial market participants will carefully study his speech in order to catch signals from him regarding the further actions of the Fed.

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Tuesday, November 30

01:00 CNY Chinese Federation of Logistics and Procurement (CFLP) PMIs of Business Activity in Services and Manufacturing in China

These indicators assess the state of the service and manufacturing sectors in the Chinese economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the yuan. Previous PMI values ​​for the services sector: 52.4 in October, 47.5 in August, 53.3 in July, 55.2 in May, 56.3 in March, 51.4 in February, 52.4 in January. The indicator is above 50, which is likely to have a positive effect on the yuan quotes, even with a slight relative decline. If the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and likely to decline. Forecast for November: 49.6.

Previous PMI values ​​for the manufacturing sector: 49.2 in October, 50.1 in August, 50.4 in July, 51.0 in May, 51.9 in March, 50.6 in February, 51.3 in January.

The relative growth of the index and the indicator above the value of 50 should have a positive effect on the CNY. The data above the value of 50 indicates an increase in activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. In the opposite case, and if the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and, probably, will decline. Forecast for November: 53.0.

10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index. Core CPI (Pre-release)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in purchasing habits. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it. At the end of 2020, the CPI index fell by -0.3%, which indicates low inflationary pressures and even a slowdown in inflation. Forecast for November 2021: +3.7% (YoY) vs. +4.1% in October, +3.4% in September, +1.9% in June, +2.0% in May, +1.3% in March, +0.9% in January and February. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the euro may drop sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. Recall that the target level of consumer inflation by the ECB is slightly below 2.0%.

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy have been excluded from this indicator to provide a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, and a low result weakens it. Core CPI rose +2.0% in October, +1.9% in September, +0.9% in June, +1.0% in May 2021, +0.7% in April (YoY) after more modest values ​​of +0.2% between September and December 2020. If the data for November turn out to be worse than the previous value or forecast, then this may negatively affect the euro. If the data turn out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, then the euro is likely to respond with an increase in quotations, but only in the short term. Core inflation in the Eurozone remains low, which is a negative factor for the euro. Forecast for November: +1.9%.

13:30 CAD Canadian GDP. Annual data on GDP of Canada

Canada's GDP report is published by Statistics Canada. Strong report will strengthen CAD. Weak GDP report will negatively affect CAD. The previous report indicated an increase in Canada's GDP (in August) by +0.4%.

Canada's Quarterly GDP report reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced by Canada for the quarter (in annual terms) and is considered an indicator of the general health of the Canadian economy.

In the previous 2nd quarter of 2021, GDP decreased by -1.1% (after an increase of +5.6% in 1st quarter of 2021, +9.3% in the 4th quarter and a fall of -38.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2020). If the data for the 3rd quarter of 2021 is stronger than the previous value, the CAD will strengthen. Forecast: +0.7% in September and +2.5% in the 3rd quarter. This is positive data for CAD.

15:00 USD Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

Powell's comments could have an impact on both short-term and long-term USD trading if he again touches on the topic of the Fed's monetary policy. A more “hawkish” stance on the Fed's monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthening the US dollar, while a more cautious position is seen as negative for the USD.

If he makes unexpected statements, then the volatility in trading in the financial markets may increase. According to Powell, the current policy of the Fed is sufficient and appropriate to the situation, but the central bank is ready to adjust it in the event of risks that may become an obstacle to achieving its goals.

Financial market participants will carefully study his speech in order to catch signals from him regarding the further actions of the Fed.

Wednesday, December 01

00:30 AUD Australian GDP (Q3)

Australian Bureau of Statistics report on the country's GDP, which is the main indicator of the state of the Australian economy, for the 3rd quarter. Strong report will strengthen AUD. Weak GDP report will negatively affect the AUD. Forecast: -2.7% (versus +0.7% in Q2, +1.8% in Q1 of 2021). The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, the decline is negative. If the data turns out to be even worse than the forecast, then the AUD may decline sharply.

07:00 EUR Retail sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany, showing changes in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Forecast: +1.0% (-2.0% y / y) in October against -2.5% (-0.9% y / y) in September, -0.9% (+3.7% y / y) in August, -5.1% (-0.3% y / y) in July, +4.2% (+6.2% y / y) in June, +4.2% (-2.4% y / y) in May, -2.0% (+4.4% y / y) in April, +7.7% (+11% y / y) in March, +1.2% (-9.0% y / y) in February, -4.5% (-8.7% y / y) in January.

The data indicate the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy, including due to lockdowns due to the coronavirus. Better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive effect on the euro, but in the short term.

13:15 USD ADP Private Sector Employment Report

Typically, the ADP's private sector employment report has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes. An increase in the value of this indicator has a positive effect on the dollar. US private sector workforce growth is expected to be +525,000 in November (versus an increase of 571,000 in October, 568,000 in September, 374,000 in August, 330,000 in July, 692,000 in June, 978,000 in May, 742,000 in April, 517,000 in March, 117,000 in February, 174,000 in January, a drop of -123,000 in December). The relative growth of the indicator may have a positive effect on the dollar quotes, while the relative decline in the indicator - negatively. The market reaction may be negative, and the dollar may decline if the data also turns out to be worse than the forecast.

Millions of Americans have previously been laid off due to the coronavirus pandemic and related quarantine measures. The bulk of layoffs were concentrated in tourism and retail. Other important sectors of the economy were also affected. ADP previously reported that the most significant drop in employment was recently noted in the construction and financial services sectors.

Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with the official US Department of Labor data on the labor market, which will be released on Friday, however, the ADP report is often a harbinger of it, having a noticeable impact on the market.

15:00 USD Index (PMI) of business activity (from ISM) in the manufacturing sector of the US economy

Published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the health of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 61.0 in November (against 60.8 in October, 61.1 in September, 59.9 in August, 60.8 in July, 60.6 in June, 61.2 in May, 60.7 in April, 64.7 in March, 60.8 in February, 58.7 in January, 60.7 in December). The index is above the 50 level and has a relatively high value, which is likely to support the dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicates an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast, and especially below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

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Thursday, December 02

00:30 AUD Trade balance

The indicator (trade balance) assesses the ratio between Australia's exports and imports. Growth in exports from Australia leads to an increase in the trade surplus, which has a positive impact on the AUD. Previous value A $ 12.243 billion (September), A $ 15.077 billion (August), A $ 12.117 billion (July), A $ 9.681 billion (May), A $ 8.028 billion (April), A $ 5.574 billion (March), A $ 7.529 billion (February). A decrease in the trade surplus may negatively affect the Australian dollar. Conversely, the growing trade surplus is a positive factor for the AUD. Forecast for October: AU $ 11.000 billion.

Friday, December 03

10:00 EUR Retail sales in the Eurozone

Retail sales is a major consumer spending indicator that shows the change in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Forecast for October: +0.2% (+1.5% yoy) versus -0.3% (+2.5% yoy) in September, +0.3% (+0% yoy) in August, -2.3% (+3.1% yoy) in July, +1.5% (+5.0% yoy) in June, +4.6% (+9.0% yoy) in May, -3.1% and +23.9% (yoy) in March, +3.0% and -2.9% (in annual terms) in February, -5.9% and -6.4% (in annual terms) in January. The data suggests that, despite the rise in indices, retail sales have not yet reached pre-coronavirus levels after a sharp drop in March-April 2020, when strict quarantine measures were in force in Europe. Nevertheless, better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive effect on the euro.

13:30 USD Average hourly wage. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Unemployment rate

The most important indicators of the state of the labor market in the United States for November. Forecast: +0.4% (against +0.4% in October, +0.6% in August and September, +0.4% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.5% in May, +0.7% in April, -0.1% in March, +0.2% in January and February, +0.8% in December, +0.3% in November) / +0.528 million (against +0.531 million in October, +0.194 million in September, +0.500 million in August, +0.665 million +0.943 million in July, +0.850 million in June, +0.559 million in May, +0.266 million in April, +0.916 million in March, +0.379 in February, +0.049 million in January, -0.140 million in December, +0.245 million in November, +0.638 million in October, +1.763 million in July and -20.687 million in April 2020) / 4.5% (versus 4.6% in October, 4.8% in September, 5.2% in August, 5.4% in July, 5.9% in June, 5.8% in May, 6.1% in April, 6.0 % in March, 6.2% in February, 6.3% in January, 6.7% in December and November, 6.9% in October, 13.3% in May and 14.7% in April 2020), respectively.

In general, the indicators can be called encouraging. The data speaks of continued improvement in the US labor market after plummeting in the first half of 2020. Prior to the coronavirus, the US labor market remained strong, signaling the stability of the American economy and supporting dollar quotes.

It is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators, because many indicators for previous periods are subject to revision. Now it will be even more difficult to do this, because the economic situation in the United States and many other large economies remains controversial due to the coronavirus. In any case, when data from the US labor market is published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only in USD, but throughout the entire financial market. Probably the most cautious investors will choose to stay out of the market during this time frame.

13:30 CAD Canadian unemployment rate

Statistics Canada is to publish data on the country's labor market for November. Unemployment has risen in Canada in recent months, including amid massive business closures due to coronavirus and layoffs. Unemployment rose from the usual 5.6% - 5.7% to 7.8% in March and already up to 13.7% in May 2020. If unemployment continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data is better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for CAD, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor. In October, unemployment was at 6.7% (versus 6.9% in September and August, 7.5% in July, 7.8% in June, 8.2% in May, 8.1% in April, 7.5% in March, 8.2% in February, 9.4% in January, 8.8% in December, 8.6% in November).

15:00 USD ISM PMI in the US Services Economy

This indicator assesses the state of the service sector in the US economy. The service sector (as opposed to the manufacturing sector) have practically no impact on the country's GDP.

This indicator came out with a value of 61.9 in September, and 66.7 in October. A result above 50 is seen as positive for the USD. Forecast for November: 65.5, which is likely to have a positive overall effect on the USD. However, a deeper relative decline in the index, and especially below the value of 50, may negatively affect the dollar in the short term.

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